26
MAY
2026
One of the reasons why US President Donald Trump has so far continued negotiations with Iran and has not restarted the US-Israeli war of aggression is that the US armed forces have already severely decimated their weapons stocks in the 40-day fighting. This is evident from a list of the Washington Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). According to this, US troops fired more than 1,000 of the probably 3,100 Tomahawk cruise missiles that were stored in US stocks before the war. In addition, more than 1,100 of the total of 4,400 surface-to-air cruise missiles JASSM were used.[ 1] Even higher is the proportion used in defensive missiles, which were used, among other things, against relatively cheap Iranian drones; thus, from the probably 2,330 Patriot missiles between 1,060 and 1,430 were fired, from the probably around 360 THAAD missiles between 190 and 290. The production period of a rocket is estimated at approximately 42 months (Patriot) or 47 months (Tomahawk). To make matters worse, the processing of various metals, which are irreplaceable for the production of the weapons, is strongly controlled by China; this applies not only to the rare earths, but also to tungsten, for example.[ 2] It should cost the US some effort to replenish the missile stocks.
In addition, the damage to US military facilities in the Middle East caused by Iranian drones and missiles is obviously much worse than previously known. According to research by the Washington Post [3], Iranian weapons hit at least 228 US targets in the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq and Jordan, in some cases destroying extremely expensive facilities that can only be replaced with considerable time expenditure. About the base of the U.S. The Navy in Bahrain, for example, where the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet is housed, are reported to have been so severely damaged that they could no longer be used for command functions; these have then been transferred to the CENTCOM headquarters at the MacDill Air Force Base in Florida. Since the beginning of the ceasefire, observers have sometimes expressed that the question must be asked whether it is worth rebuilding all of the US bases; after all, they are permanently within range of Iranian missiles. This weighs all the more heavily because, according to research by the New York Times, the Iranian armed forces probably still have 70 percent of their pre-war stocks of missiles available, as well as 70 percent of their mobile missile launchers. 4] Significant drone stocks are added.
Beyond the material damage, the United States faces significant political problems. With the attack on Iran on 28. In February, Washington had overcome urgent pleas from the Arab Gulf states not to start the war. In the meantime, at least some Gulf states are prepared to respond to further disregard for their interests with practical countermeasures. After the United States initiated measures to forcefully open the Strait of Hormuz ("Project Freedom") at the beginning of the month, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait closed US bases on their territory - such as the Prince Sultan Air Base southeast of Riyadh - and especially their airspace for relevant US military operations. This prompted the US administration to freeze "Project Freedom" again within a very short time. 5] Last week it was reported that Trump had postponed new considerations to resume selective attacks on Iran, not least to the intervention of Saudi Arabia. Riyadh had pointed out that a flare-up of the war during the current Hajj would present the Saudi state with serious logistical difficulties and lead to dramatic damage to the US president's image. 6]
Against this background, the Trump administration has made it clear in recent days that it is ready to make a kind of framework agreement with Tehran. According to the current status, it is to be valid for 60 days and provides for an extension of the ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to this, the United States should end the blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran will no longer charge fees for the passage through the Strait. Negotiations on a new nuclear agreement are to be temporarily excluded and will not be started until the new framework agreement comes into force. According to unconfirmed reports, Tehran may also be willing to confirm that it is not aiming for the construction of nuclear weapons. Of course, this has always been the official position of Iran. A rapprochement between both sides in the nuclear dispute has not yet emerged. The German diplomat Hans-Dieter Lucas, who was involved in the negotiations on the 2015 nuclear agreement, has pointed out that the starting point for future talks has deteriorated considerably due to the exit from the agreement carried out by Trump in 2018 by Trump: Today, Iran has more than 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium; "back then it was much less. That says it all."[ 7]
The prospects for a possible deployment of the German Navy in the Strait of Hormuz are still completely unclear. Iran continues to insist on controlling the Strait of Hormuz in the future. Accordingly, passages would have to be applied for and approved by the newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority in Tehran. 8] Iran's government has reportedly pledged a fee-free passage only for the time being for the duration of the negotiations on the new nuclear agreement. Even if it had to permanently waive fees in the further course of the talks, its right to control of the sea route would still remain. This would be a significant deterioration of its position on the Persian Gulf from the West's point of view. In particular, it would be unclear how Berlin wanted to legitimize or even enforce the intended use of German warships in the Strait of Hormuz, should Tehran insist on control over the Strait. This would put the German-European efforts to become the decisive power in the strategically important waterway by naval operation on the road.
[1] Mark F. Cancian, Chris H. Park: Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire. csis.org 21.04.2026.
[2] Janis Mackey Frayer, Stella Kim, Jennifer Jett: China controls a metal that's key for the Iran war, sending the U.S. on a global hunt for more. nbcnews.com 25.05.2026.
[3] Evan Hill, Jarrett Ley, Alex Horton, Tara Copp, Dan Lamothe: Iran has hit far more U.S. military assets than reported, satellite images show. washingtonpost.com 05.07.2026.
Adam Entous, Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan: U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities. nytimes.com 12.05.2026.
[5] Gulf states derailed Trump's 'Project Freedom' by cutting US access to airspace and bases.
[6] Shafik Mandhai: Trump postponed US attack on Iran after 'Hajj warning'. middleeasteye.net 20.05.2026.
[7] "The Iranians said: Congratulations to Germany!" ga.de 25.05.2026.